Sunday, May 26, 2013

Hockey sizes up for the top job

But it's not just the Treasurer's job he wants - he wants Tony Abbott's job too. Eventually. Over the past few months, Hockey has been telling people in Sydney and Melbourne that he is now "serious" about replacing Abbott should the opportunity arise at some stage.

This is what he told guests at Peter FitzSimons and Lisa Wilkinson's Australia Day barbecue at their waterfront home in Sydney. And he has said the same thing to several senior business leaders in private meetings and boardroom discussions in recent months.

He's also told colleagues: "I won't make the same mistakes that Peter Costello made on the leadership. Unlike Peter, I won't die wondering."

But Hockey's renewed leadership ambitions are safely parked for now. Abbott has been an effective Opposition Leader. The Coalition maintains a strong lead over Labor in the polls. Abbott looks all but guaranteed to become prime minister in September.

The leadership turmoil within Labor means that any hint of disunity in Coalition ranks is, as one opposition MP put it to this column, "one bone that is buried deep". Labor's perpetual leadership angst has strengthened Abbott's hold on the leadership.

The Coalition is determined to do all it can to avoid any sign of instability. Any frontbencher seen to be "angling for the leadership", another Coalition MP told this column, will earn the wrath of their rtls.

They know how damaging it has been to Labor. In the past three years, Labor has endured three major leadership convulsions: Kevin Rudd's removal in 2010, his challenge last year and the aborted putsch in March. Between each crisis, Labor has been gripped by leadership speculation.

All leaders are tested in government. Yet leadership instability is a permanent feature of modern politics. In the past 30 years, every prime minister from Malcolm Fraser to Julia Gillard has faced either a direct leadership challenge or the threat of one.

Hockey's loose lips about being a future leadership contender - confirmed by several of his colleagues and senior business figures - provide an insight into his increasing confidence.

It is far removed from the ridicule he received after vacillating on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in late 2009, when he was favoured to replace Malcolm Turnbull.

The purpose of Hockey setting out leadership markers now is to position himself as the heir apparent to Abbott, whenever that time comes. Critical to this is cementing his place as the clear No 2 right now. Julie Bishop is the Liberal deputy leader and deputy Coalition leader, even though National Party leader Warren Truss will be deputy prime minister in government. Hockey does not see Bishop as becoming a threat.

He is suspicious about Turnbull, who has buried the hatchet with Abbott. He is acutely aware of how Turnbull, as a backbencher and minister, undermined Costello as treasurer. And he is keeping a close eye on Scott Morrison, who is also in the future leaders frame.

For the past decade, Abbott has been a leader among the conservative wing (dries) of the Liberal Party while Hockey has been a leader among the moderates (wets). But Hockey's tough stand on the budget and his promise to end "the culture of universal entitlement" has won him respect from conservatives.

Hockey's principal backer in the Liberal partyroom is South Australian MP Jamie Briggs, a well-known dry. Briggs is to Hockey what another South Australian MP, Christopher Pyne (a wet), was to Costello.

Peter Dutton, another social conservative, is also close to Hockey. Formerly assistant treasurer to Costello, he regularly talks to Hockey about economic policy. They ran on a leadership ticket in 2009. A future Hockey-Dutton ticket is expected.

Coalition MPs say they are witnessing Hockey transform his political persona. It is not just about shedding weight. Once taunted as "sloppy Joe", known for gaffes and often short on detail, he is working harder. He is more disciplined, focused and effective in the media.

Hockey understands the budgetary challenge. Last week two independent reports - from the Parliamentary Budget Office and Treasury - revealed that a structural budget deficit was expected for the rest of the decade. Further cuts to spending and tax increases are likely to be needed to return the budget to structural surplus. Hockey has already ruled out tax cuts for the foreseeable future.

This will be difficult, given Abbott's endorsement of big spending policies such as his $4.3 billion paid parental leave scheme and his poorly designed $3.2bn Direct Action climate change policy. Hockey also needs to ensure his messages are consistent with Abbott's, given they have contradicted each other in the past on PPL, carbon tax compensation and returning to surplus.

As with all leadership contenders, Hockey will determine his future by his performance. He needs to keep faith with his promise to curtail middle-class welfare and repair the budget's bottom line. It won't be trouble-free. He has already been rolled in shadow cabinet several times.

Hockey also has a tendency to feign outrage, which grates with colleagues. And he talks down Australia's overall economic performance, which rankles some senior business figures.

Some Coalition MPs are highly critical of opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb's communication skills. It therefore falls mainly to Hockey to sell the Coalition's economic messages. How effective Hockey is as a communicator will also determine whether or not he gets to the top job he is talking so openly about.

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